Europe Economic Outlook Slump puts new strains on currency union The lockdown has triggered the biggest economic slump since WW2 with activity likely to drop by around 20% in Q2. As the peak of the epidemic passes, restrictions will be lifted gradually, and... 21st April 2020 · 29 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to follow the ECB down We think growth and inflation will be below consensus in Switzerland and the Nordics this year. Switzerland is most exposed to the prolonged manufacturing recession in Germany and inflation there is... 22nd January 2020 · 20 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to keep pushing on a string We expect economic growth to remain sluggish this year as external demand picks up only slowly and domestic demand softens. Employment growth is slowing, which will cause household incomes and... 21st January 2020 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Easing cycles have further to run In keeping with our bearish view on the euro-zone, our forecasts for GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordic economies over the coming years are generally well below consensus. Switzerland is most... 16th October 2019 · 21 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone close to recession Economic growth has slowed to a crawl and is likely to remain anaemic until well into next year, even in the absence of a fresh external shock. Germany is probably in a recession already and we think... 15th October 2019 · 30 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to push the boundaries of policy easing We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics... 17th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook ECB to try QE again Economic growth is likely to remain anaemic this year and to slow further in 2020 even if downside risks, such as a US auto tariff or no-deal Brexit, do not materialise. The downturn in the German... 16th July 2019 · 34 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook In the shadow of the euro-zone Weak growth in the euro-zone overshadows near-term prospects in Switzerland and the Nordics. We expect activity to slow in most countries this year and to stay sluggish in 2020. As a result, price... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Central banks to tighten very slowly We expect GDP growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics to slow this year and next. As a result, price pressures should generally remain subdued and central banks look set to raise interest rates... 21st January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB and Riksbank policy to diverge The era of record-low interest rates is nearly over in Sweden, but it is a long way from finished in Switzerland. The Swedish economy is powering ahead, generating inflationary pressure that the... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policymakers to push the boundaries of policy easing We think that a combination of policy loosening by major central banks, an increase in investor risk aversion, and mounting trade tensions will lead to bond yields in Switzerland and the Nordics... 9th September 2018 · 21 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB lagging behind in the monetary tightening cycle Economic growth in Switzerland and across the Nordics looks set to remain pretty strong over the coming years. But inflationary pressures vary significantly between countries. We think that central... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
