Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market stress around elections: lessons from history Governments that have been elected during episodes of severe market stress and have managed to turn things around have done so by securing some form of bailout package and announcing a credible reform... 23rd October 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep. 2019) After small net inflows in Q2, we estimate that emerging markets (EMs) experienced net outflows in Q3. With the recent detente in the trade war unlikely to continue, further capital outflows are... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs reaching the limits of monetary policy? If faced with a steep downturn, most EM central banks would be able to cut interest rates substantially in order to cushion their economies. Interest rates in a handful of countries are close to the... 4th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are we in the EM economic cycle? Aggregate emerging market growth is likely to stabilise at close to 4% y/y in the coming quarters, but within this several different economic cycles are playing out. The recent resilience in Central... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holding up The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a six-month high in September adds to our view that EM growth is stabilising, even as advanced economies continue to lose momentum. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Middle East tensions and the impact on EM rates Rising tensions in the Middle East present a significant upside risk to our oil price and inflation forecasts, and could force a handful of EM central banks to abandon easing cycles or even hike... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug. 2019) EM capital outflows persisted last month and, with the US-China trade war unlikely to abate, we think that they will continue in the coming quarters. However, the scale of outflows should remain... 25th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Capital controls: the good, the bad and the ugly Capital controls can be an effective tool if policymakers are able to plug loopholes and address the underlying economic vulnerabilities that initially resulted in pressures on the financial account... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Currency falls unlikely to derail EM easing cycles We expect EM currencies to come under further pressure over the coming quarters, but the falls are unlikely to be on the same scale as the ones which ended previous easing cycles. As a result, most EM... 5th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing showing signs of stabilisation The rise in the EM manufacturing PMI for August is further evidence that the slowdown in EM GDP growth has bottomed out. But the surveys remain consistent with sluggish growth, and we continue to... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2019) After a relatively calm first half of 2019, EM capital outflows probably picked up significantly in August as US-China trade tensions escalated. And outflows are likely to remain larger over the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after EM currency collapses? Emerging economies whose currencies have fallen by 15% or more against the dollar in a single day – as the Argentine peso did yesterday – have fallen into recession in 85% of cases in the last 25... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Argentina’s (new) crisis and the hit to EMs The falls in EM currencies today suggest that the South African rand, Turkish lira and many of those in Latin America will remain in the firing line if, as we think likely, concerns about Argentina’s... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The spiralling trade war and what it means for EMs The latest phase of the trade war is likely to have a relatively limited direct impact on EM exports. But with the US and Chinese policymakers upping the ante, the indirect effects via a hit to... 6th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trade war sell-off unlikely to halt EM easing cycles The falls in EM currencies in this latest leg of the trade war have been large compared with previous episodes. If this turbulence continues, a few EM central banks (e.g. in Indonesia and Mexico)... 5th August 2019 · 3 mins read
