Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs facing synchronised downturn The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from this week’s EM central bank meetings The fall in oil prices and shift in interest rate expectations in the US and Europe seem to have brought EM monetary tightening to an end. While most central banks aren’t in a rush to loosen policy... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs now less exposed to a China slowdown? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec.) Having experienced capital inflows of almost $150bn in 2017, we estimate that EMs suffered capital outflows of around $70bn in 2018. Our Tracker suggests that the pace of capital outflows eased... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker suggests that, in Q4, capital outflows from EMs are on course to be the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace of outflows did at least ease a little in November. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the OPEC deal mean for EM oil producers? The agreement between OPEC and other major oil producers to cut oil production is likely to act as a headwind to growth across EM oil producers next year. The Gulf economies will suffer the biggest... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Further signs of EM growth stabilising in Q4 The aggregate EM manufacturing PMI edged up in November, which adds to the evidence that EM GDP growth has steadied in Q4 after a slowdown in Q3. The improvement has been driven by the BRIC economies... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fall in oil prices may slow pace of EM rate hikes The latest fall in oil prices means EM inflation is likely to rise more slowly. While we still expect a majority of EM central banks to hike interest rates, lower energy inflation may delay tightening... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What the fall in oil prices means for EMs The recent drop in oil prices will help Turkey’s balance of payments adjustment and should boost the terms of trade and growth in large EM oil importers including South Africa and India. The obvious... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
