Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that EMs received positive (albeit small) net capital inflows in April. But fresh currency stress in Argentina and Turkey as well as concerns about renewed trade tensions suggest... 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing PMI falls back as BRICs falter The drop in the headline EM manufacturing PMI in April was driven by weaker surveys out of all four BRIC economies. The breakdown of Markit’s aggregate EM survey showed that the rebound in EM exports... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three key points on the latest EM currency “sell-off” The recent sell-off in EM currencies has grabbed the headlines but in truth, aside from the Argentine peso and Turkish lira, the moves have been relatively limited. This Update highlights three key... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How often do EM central banks respond to currency falls? Turkey’s central bank seems to react like clockwork by tightening monetary policy when the lira falls sharply, but other EM central banks respond much less frequently than is commonly believed. Most... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased markedly in Q1. However, we think that positive sentiment towards EMs will start to turn over the coming quarters as worries about weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the EM export slowdown The most notable explanation behind the recent sharp slowdown in EM export growth is the fall in commodity prices. But there are signs that softer global demand has also taken its toll. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM FX bond sales? The rise in EM sovereign foreign currency bond sales this year has been concentrated in larger EMs with relatively strong balance sheets. We are more concerned about heavy foreign currency public debt... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased in February, mirroring the broader improvement in investor sentiment towards the emerging world. But more timely data indicate that this was... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? The lesson from Turkey over the last few years is that it takes time for political pressure on the central bank to have negative macroeconomic consequences. With this in mind, while recent... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that the improvement in sentiment towards EMs at the start of this year was accompanied by a pick-up in capital flows in January. It looks like this was concentrated in flows to... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs facing synchronised downturn The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from this week’s EM central bank meetings The fall in oil prices and shift in interest rate expectations in the US and Europe seem to have brought EM monetary tightening to an end. While most central banks aren’t in a rush to loosen policy... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
