Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland on hold for time being Little has changed since the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) last policy meeting, so we expect it to keep policy unchanged next week. Later this year, we see the Bank raising interest rates. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Weak inflation supports patient, prudent approach With the economy still performing well and the euro off the boil, we expect the ECB to remove the loosening bias from its forward guidance when it meets on 8th March. But the persistent weakness of... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to test the water soon with change of language With the Riksbank on track to raise interest rates this year, it is likely to test the water soon by dropping its pledge to loosen policy further if necessary. But as inflation expectations in Sweden... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland to raise rates later this year Inflation pressures seem to be rising faster than we had expected. As a result, we now see the Central Bank of Iceland raising interest rates this year. 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Change in forward guidance less hawkish than assumed While the ECB maintained all elements of its policy support last month, the recent news that it would soon “revisit” its forward guidance saw rate expectations rise and the euro strengthen. At its... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish With consumer price inflation set to rise gradually, but house prices falling, we think that the Norges Bank will reiterate next week that interest rates will not rise until the autumn. We suspect... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to confirm end of QE this month While there are some reasons to think that the Riksbank will extend its quantitative easing programme when it meets next week, we think that policymakers will let it expire. We also think that the... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to become more dovish The Norges Bank is very unlikely to change its policy rate next week, but we think that it will push back the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates to the end of 2019. After all, the... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Buoyant economy to prompt only minor change in tone Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to sit tight as ECB taper eases pressure on franc Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Icelandic interest rates to remain on hold At its last meeting in November, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) kept policy on hold. Nothing has happened since then to alter our view that interest rates will remain unchanged until 2019. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Where are Icelandic policy rates heading? Forecasters have been wrong-footed this year by the Central Bank of Iceland’s (CBI) rate cuts. This appears to be because the CBI has started to put more emphasis on a different inflation measure, and... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Set to unveil roadmap for gentle, flexible taper The ECB has now laid some very firm groundwork to announce after its meeting on 26th October that it will taper its asset purchases from January. Unlike most forecasters, we expect the Bank to set out... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank on hold ahead of ECB The Riksbank is unlikely to shift its policy stance until it sees firmer signals of the outlook for policy in the euro-zone. So despite above-target inflation in Sweden, we do not expect the Riksbank... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Housing market risks diminishing The recent slowdown in the housing market suggests that there is scope for monetary policy to be looser over the coming years than the Norges Bank currently anticipates. That said, we don’t expect any... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Monetary policy outlook clouded by political uncertainty We no longer expect the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) to cut interest rates again this year. The Government’s collapse and prospect of a left-wing coalition taking power have increased the chance of a... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
