ECB Watch Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid... 10th October 2024 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President... 6th September 2024 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Interest rates on hold amid strong price pressures The ECB is likely to leave the deposit rate on hold at 3.75% next week and refrain from any explicit guidance about the future path of interest rates. The continued strength of wage growth and... 11th July 2024 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to cut rates at 6th June meeting, then pause Having agreed to do so at their last meeting, we think the ECB Governing Council will go ahead and cut the deposit rate by 25bp next week, to 3.75%. As the recent inflation data have been a bit higher... 31st May 2024 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB preparing the ground for rate cuts in June Next week, we expect the ECB to signal clearly that as long as economic developments are broadly in line with official forecasts, it will cut interest rates in June. There is a decent case for a 50bp... 4th April 2024 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest) Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to push back against early rate cut bets The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this... 18th January 2024 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch Bank to set the stage for 2024 rate cuts Policymakers will have no choice but to acknowledge next week that they may achieve their inflation target earlier than they had anticipated. Some may push back against expectations that the Bank will... 6th December 2023 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch From pause to plateau There is little doubt that the ECB will leave interest rates unchanged next week, with the deposit rate on hold at 4%. Recent activity and inflation data have been weaker than expected, but this won’t... 19th October 2023 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch One last rate hike... After a run of rather predictable meetings during the past few months, next week’s monetary policy meeting looks set to be finely balanced. We think another 25bp rate hike is the most likely outcome... 7th September 2023 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch Close to the peak but rate cuts a long way off There is little doubt that the ECB will raise its deposit rate by a further 25bp next week, to 3.75%. The September decision will be a much closer call but we think another 25bp then is most likely... 20th July 2023 · 7 mins read
ECB Watch At least one, and probably two, more 25bp hikes to go A 25bp interest rate rise next week, taking the deposit rate to 3.5%, looks like a done deal. We think that the ECB will also hint at a likely 25bp increase at the meeting in July and will emphasise... 8th June 2023 · 9 mins read
ECB Watch Deposit rate still on track for 4% peak While it is not a done deal, we think the ECB is most likely to raise its deposit rate by 50bp next week. Economic activity has been more resilient and core inflation higher than the ECB anticipated... 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Another 25bp Norges Bank hike is on its way We expect the Norges Bank to follow through on its plan to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.25%. We have pencilled in a peak of 3.5% in June but the risks are skewed towards it reaching a... 27th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank beating the ECB to 3.5% The Riksbank will raise its key policy rate by another 50bp next week, bringing it to 3.5%, and we think a final 50bp increase is most likely in June. Policymakers sounded pretty hawkish at the... 19th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to continue tightening We don’t think the collapse of SVB, problems at Credit Suisse and volatility in markets will deter the Norges Bank from raising its policy rate by 25bp next week, to 3.0%. If anything, the risks are... 17th March 2023 · 5 mins read
