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Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory

Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home inventory. With foreclosures also resuming, we expect inventory will see further gains. That will help cool house price growth, but the improvement will be slow and the chance of an outright decline in prices is slim.

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