Over the next few years, it’s plausible that tight credit, subdued confidence and many more foreclosures will drive the homeownership rate down to 64%, from 65.4% now. Over a longer horizon, the case for further falls in the homeownership rate hinges on whether there has been a permanent shift in the tastes and preferences of American households away from owner-occupation. Hard evidence is thin on the ground, but that doesn’t appear to have happened.
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