With less than two weeks to go until the next FOMC meeting, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rates this month are still close to 50-50. The US economic data remain strong, with the notable exception of the manufacturing sector, which should persuade Fed officials to mark up their forecasts for GDP growth this year and mark down their forecasts for the unemployment rate. But financial markets remain volatile, last week the ECB signalled it is close to boosting its policy accommodation and the economic data coming out of China isn't going to show any meaningful improvement for another month or two.
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