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Considerable uncertainty over outlook for inflation

With base effects helping to lift headline inflation back above 2% in December, we expect an acceleration in wage growth along with a stimulus-fuelled pick-up in GDP growth to drive both headline and core CPI inflation above 3% by the end of this year. Donald Trump’s election victory has introduced considerable uncertainty over the outlook, however, and there are a number of risks which could have a significant bearing on the inflation outlook.

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