The chances of a recession in 2020 are still barely higher than the normal background risk. Our composite 12 month ahead probit model – based on the yield curve, financial conditions and various activity indicators – puts the odds of a recession at only 12%. That is markedly lower than the 20% reading a couple of months ago, with the decline principally due to the un-inversion of the yield curve.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services