Amid the reopening of shops and pubs this week, it was the subtler news that the MPC’s arch-optimist Andy Haldane is leaving the MPC at the end of June that caused a reaction in the markets. At the margin, Haldane’s departure makes us a bit more comfortable in our view that the markets have got ahead of themselves in expecting rates to rise as soon as 2022. But we doubt the news is quite as dovish as many have suggested.
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