By any ordinary standards, the economic backdrop to the general election is poor. Only on three previous occasions since 1955 have elections taken place against a background of negative annual GDP growth. (See Chart.) Admittedly, the economic environment is more favourable than seemed possible a few months ago, with the latest news confirming that, for now, the recovery retains momentum. But with a major fiscal squeeze around the corner, we still expect growth to disappoint.
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