The economy is still flirting with a further contraction in GDP in the first quarter. Indeed, the weighted average of the three CIPS surveys in February suggested on the basis of past form that output will flatline in Q1 at best. Granted, unusually bad weather reportedly knocked the manufacturing and construction sectors, so the economy may end the quarter on a stronger note. But a material improvement soon remains unlikely, given that the inflation squeeze on consumers is intensifying, overseas demand for exports is fading and another round of austerity begins in April.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services