With one eye on the upcoming Aramco IPO and the fiscal position under strain, the odds of the Saudi government pushing for deeper oil production cuts are shortening. Meanwhile, the decline in Egyptian inflation to a six-year low in August supports our long-held view that inflation and interest rates would fall sharply. Finally, the first round of voting in Tunisia’s presidential election takes place on Sunday, but whoever forms the next government faces an uphill battle to restore macroeconomic stability.
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