The latest data suggest that Brazil’s recovery so far has been quicker than we expected, which has prompted us to revise up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.0% (previously -7.0%). However, tighter policy, labour market weakness and the continued spread of the virus mean the recovery from here on will be much slower. We expect that GDP will still be some 6% below its pre-crisis trend by end-2022.
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