The Bank of Japan left rates on hold today, as universally expected, but the tone of its twice-yearly “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” is more dovish than we at least had anticipated. In particular the changes in the language on interest rates are consistent with a shift from a “tightening” to a “neutral” bias. Nonetheless, we remain confident that the next move in rates is up, and the Bank’s latest economic forecasts still support that view.
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