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Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010

The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at around $70-75 per barrel (pb). However, we continue to expect the cost of crude to drop back to around $50pb next year as the dollar recovers further and global demand ultimately disappoints.

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