The decline of more than 5% in the S&P 500 since its mid-September high is unlikely to mark the beginning of a bear market. This is because bear markets typically only occur in, and around, recessions, rather than in the middle of entrenched recoveries. We are sticking with our long-held forecast that the index will end this year around 1,950 (compared to 1,906 now) and grind slowly higher to 2,100 by the end of 2016.
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