Skip to main content

Do rising term premia pose a threat to US Treasuries?

Some observers appear to be concerned that the onset of US monetary tightening will drive up long-term Treasury yields via a substantial increase in “term premia”. But a new set of unofficial data, published by staffers at the New York Federal Reserve, corroborate our view that this is unlikely. An increase in pure expectations for short-term interest rates will probably have a much bigger effect.

Become a client to read more

This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.

Already have an account?

You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.

Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it

Register for free

Sign up for a free account to:

  • Unlock additional content
  • Register for Capital Economics events
  • Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
  • Request a free trial of our services


Get access