The pick-up in world trade in the last quarter of 2016 adds to the evidence that the global economy gained momentum late last year. But the key question is whether the new US administration will bring this recovery to an end. Donald Trump’s first few days in the White House suggest that the fully intends to tear up the rule book governing US trade. For now, we suspect that he will not do enough damage to completely undermine global growth prospects, but the risks appear to be rising.
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