Global Trade Monitor World trade bearing the brunt of weak demand As of January, world trade had already fallen by more than 5% from its peak in September. And despite a slight boost from reopening in China, several leading indicators still point to further falls in... 11th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade in recessionary territory While a slew of recent data from advanced economies have surprised to the upside, world trade data are still very much consistent with economic weakness in the near term. Not only did Q4 see one of... 28th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Leading indicators point to further falls in world trade World trade has fallen in recent months on the back of slowing global growth. COVID-related weakness in Chinese activity in Q4 weighed notably on China’s exports, and while its seemingly rapid... 26th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade stagnates as demand wanes Trade is beginning to slow as the world heads into a recession. In real terms, world trade barely rose in September, and timelier data from Asian economies suggest outright falls are imminent. Falling... 28th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Goods trade set to fall as global recession takes hold There is growing evidence that weakening demand in major economies is taking a toll on world trade. While trade volumes rose in August, early reporting Asian economies revealed a decline in imports in... 26th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor World trade to fall outright amid global recession While world trade was resilient in the first half of this year, there is growing evidence that it has since weakened, and we suspect that it will contract outright in 2023 as the world economy falls... 28th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Shipping costs fall in tandem with export orders World trade was broadly unchanged at a high level in June, and timelier data suggest that the continued easing of supply constraints in China helped lift exports in Asia in July. But forward-looking... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Global trade boosted by post-lockdown rebound in China A sharp rebound in Chinese exports helped lift world trade higher in May, and could boost trade further in the coming months. But outside of China, forward-looking indicators still suggest that weaker... 27th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Rebound in trade likely to prove short-lived Official data showed that world trade rose slightly in April and limited data for May suggest that it probably rose further as disruptions from lockdowns in China eased. But weaker global final demand... 28th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor More signs that softer demand is weighing on trade After a growth spurt late last year, world trade flatlined in Q1. The Ukraine war and lockdowns in China raised concerns that renewed supply bottlenecks would choke up world trade. However... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Weaker demand starting to weigh on trade While official data showed that world trade held up well in February, timelier national indicators suggest that exports from some Asian economies have fallen since then. This slowdown seems to reflect... 26th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Early signs of trade fallout from the war The latest available official data suggest that world trade held onto gains from Q4 in January, and timely indicators suggest that it may have edged up in February. It will be May before we have... 29th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Russia-Ukraine war risks renewed trade disruptions The latest trade data suggest that the Omicron wave caused limited disruption at the turn of the year. And, for now, it looks like the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on world trade will be small in... 1st March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Trade rebound chimes with better news on supply chains After gradually trending lower for much of last year, November marked the second consecutive month of strong growth in world trade, which reached a new record high. This adds to evidence that some... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Supply constraints cause world trade to trend lower World trade has continued to edge down from its high peak in March, as supply shortages have meant that Asian exporters remain unable to keep up with strong demand from consumers in advanced economies... 25th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Trade Monitor Supply problems to continue constraining world trade The evidence keeps mounting that world trade is unable to rise any further from its elevated level. And industrial supply and global logistics are likely to continue failing to keep up with demand in... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
