The details of the reported “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China are sketchy and we are not convinced that it will hold. While the deal removes a downside risk, it does not justify a change in our central forecasts for GDP growth in the US, China or the rest of the world. And importantly, it does not mark the end of tensions between the US and China, which are likely to persist in the areas of technology and investment as decoupling continues.
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