On the face of it, history doesn’t offer much reassurance that the world economy will be able to return to the path it would have been on had it not been for COVID-19. Indeed, looking back at all the downturns that have taken place in the OECD since 1965, GDP has still been below its pre-recession trend after five years in almost three quarters of cases. But upon closer inspection, we believe that past experience actually supports our cautiously optimistic view that global GDP will revert to its pre-virus trend later this decade.
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