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Austerity to undermine GDP regardless of Reinhart/Rogoff

The exposure of errors in Reinhart and Rogoff’s paper on debt and growth does not affect our view that fiscal austerity will be a major drag on growth for some years to come, particularly in advanced economies. In principle, the affair provides some support for those arguing for a more gradual pace of fiscal consolidation, but there is no sign at present that governments are ready to change course, even in the UK.

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