Assessing the damage from a global trade war is tricky because there are few historical precedents and the costs would depend on the nature of the conflict. But our best guess is that, if all governments imposed blanket tariffs of around 25% on all imports, world GDP would decline by 2-3% compared to a no-conflict scenario. These costs would be heavily concentrated in a few sectors and countries.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services