The latest surveys suggest that the UK economy has slowed but not slumped following the EU referendum, while growth in the world as a whole has remained sluggish. The US economy looks set to pick up a bit after a very weak first half of the year while activity may slow in the euro-zone and Japan. In emerging economies, aggregate growth has rebounded because the recessions in Brazil and Russia have eased and our in-house estimates suggest that growth in China has stabilised. With inflation still close to zero in advanced economies, we expect more monetary policy easing by year-end in the euro-zone and Japan, but the Fed is likely to raise interest rates again in December.
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