Football fans will not need to be told that life is still not quite back to normal in Europe as the stadiums are less than half full and “Euro 2020” is taking place a full year late. But in many respects, the economy is springing back life. We expect this to push inflation up temporarily in the second half of the year. Next week, flash PMIs and the German Ifo are likely to provide further confirmation that the service sector is rebounding. We will also be looking out for results of the French local elections (first round) and are holding a 20-minute “drop-in” conversation on the outlook for wages and inflation next Wednesday.
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