Recent activity indicators suggest that the euro-zone economy had started to lose some of its momentum even before the recent escalation of the crisis in Cyprus. Admittedly, most survey indicators are still stronger than they were a few months ago and suggest that the economy contracted less sharply in Q1 than in Q4 last year. But the renewed falls are worryingly reminiscent of developments a year or so ago, when the surveys rose sharply only to reverse their gains in the spring. Recent developments therefore suggest that it will take more than a period of market calmness to sustain an economic recovery in the region.
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