Recent hard data have confirmed that euro-zone GDP fell for a second quarter running in Q3 and more timely indicators suggest that the recession deepened in the fourth quarter. September’s drop in industrial production showed that activity weakened as Q3 went on and provided a very weak base for Q4. Meanwhile, despite increases in the euro-zone EC and PMI surveys in November, both remain consistent with a deepening recession. Note that while the German and French economies expanded in Q3, they too look set to have contracted at the end of the year.
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