The economic data has provided somewhat conflicting messages on the likely strength of the euro-zone economy during the third quarter of the year. While the hard data on industrial production and retail sales have pointed to a better performance than the 0.2% contraction in GDP seen in Q2, the survey data has generally had a weaker tone over the quarter. Whatever the Q3 outturn, though, the broader evidence points to worse to come in Q4 and beyond. We continue to expect the euro-zone economy to contract by a well below consensus 2.5% or so in 2013.
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