Turkey's discovery of gas in the Black Sea will provide some boost to the country's balance of payments, but its might be quickly eroded if the authorities use this as an opportunity to loosen policy. Meanwhile, with monetary conditions in Turkey being tightened in recent weeks, there may be a further shift towards using fiscal policy to try to achieve the government’s economic objectives. Finally, the political crisis in Belarus may result in a rise in the number of Belarusians willing to move across the border to work in Poland.
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