CBRT & NBU in tightening mode, NBP not even close

The further rise in inflation in Turkey last month and the continued fall in the lira this week prompted a hawkish announcement from the CBRT and we now expect a 100bp rise in the one-week repo rate on 18th March. Meanwhile, the 50bp interest rate hike delivered by Ukraine's central bank this week in response to a surge in inflation is likely to be followed by additional tightening in Q2. In contrast, Poland's central bank reinforced its dovish message this week that it will keep policy loose to support growth, even if that means letting inflation rise above target. We expect interest rates to remain at 0.10% until 2023.   Webinar Invite: The Asia Outlook – Will Outperformance Continue When the Pandemic Recedes? 11^th March, 2021 Join Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams and economists from across our Asia services to discuss how the region is likely to perform this year as the global economy moves towards recovery from the pandemic. Discussion will include Chinese tightening, the outlook for tech exporters and the risks to Indian banks. Register here. Webinar Invite: The Commodity Price Rally – Cyclical Upturn or New Supercycle? 9^th March, 2021 Join us on Tuesday, 9th March for a special commodities webinar. Caroline Bain, our Chief Commodities Economist, will lead a discussion with members of her team on whether the current commodity price rally is a cyclical upturn or the start of a new supercycle. Register here.