With Portugal seemingly on the cusp of an IMF/EU bailout, we suspect that the euro-zone debt crisis is about to enter a new, more dangerous, phase that ultimately ends in some form of break-up of the single currency area. The immediate impact of such an event on Emerging Europe’s economies and markets would surely be very damaging. But viewed over a longer period, the implications are not necessarily as bad as they seem at first sight. Indeed, euro-zone break-up may even end up being a net positive for those economies further east.
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