The pick-up in Polish GDP growth to 4.2% y/y in Q3 (from 3.5% y/y in Q2) is further evidence that the economic recovery is gathering momentum and is likely to strengthen calls for interest rate hikes in the near term. But while there is a chance that a first rate hike comes next month (as opposed to our current forecast of Q1), we think that other forms of monetary tightening, notably raising banks’ reserve requirements, will take precedence in the near term.
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