The m/m falls in Turkish industrial production and retail sales in April are likely to be followed by further weakness in May (when a three-week lockdown was in place). This supports our view that the economy will probably contract in q/q terms over Q2 as a whole. We suspect that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged when it meets next week, but the softer economic activity figures will add to demands for rate cuts, which seem likely to come in July.
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