Russian inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in August and we think that it will edge up a bit further over the coming months. This shouldn’t trouble the central bank too much, but the threat of sanctions and weakness in the ruble will prompt a more cautious approach from policymakers. Financial markets think that the easing cycle is now over, but we maintain our view for the policy rate to be lowered to 3.50% in 2021.
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