Wheat prices have been very volatile recently due to uncertainty over the crops in key producing countries such as the US and Russia. Unfavourable weather may indeed reduce the global harvest compared to what it might otherwise have been. However, we believe that ample stockpiles worldwide and the challenging economic and financial backdrop will still cause the price of wheat to fall by around 20%, from its current level of 635 to 510 cents per bushel, by the end of the year.
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