The price of sugar has strengthened recently due to concerns over harvests in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. The consensus is for prices to continue rising from the current level of 23.4 cents per pound (for the US benchmark sugar no. 11) to 24.5 cents by December. However, we believe that global excess supply will cause prices to fall by around 25% from here, to 18 cents, at the end of 2012, and further still in 2013.
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