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Cocoa prices will fall unless El Niño disrupts production

We expect cocoa prices to fall back in 2014-15 as market expectations of surging consumption growth appear misplaced. Indeed, we expect the market to return to a small surplus in 2013/14 after two years of deficits. However, a big upside risk to our price forecasts is the prospect of an El Niño weather event later this year.

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