Aluminium prices have been falling since 2011, despite solid growth in demand. The underlying problem is the scale of excess capacity and output in China which will remain a drag this year at least. But this has been compounded by high premiums owing to difficulty in accessing stocks. We expect some easing in market distortions this year to set the scene for a recovery in prices to over $2,000 per tonne in 2015, from $1,835 today.
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