Global Economics Focus

How to think about tariffs

In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal...

25th November 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump, OPEC, China – What’s driving oil prices in 2025?

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An oil market that has mostly looked through a year of Middle East conflict now faces fresh, Trump-shaped, uncertainty.

Equities Focus

Dim outlook for energy equities

This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming...

18th October 2024 · 12 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EMs, fracturing and the scramble for raw materials

Access to commodities – particularly critical minerals – is a growing area of competition between China and the West. And those EMs with deposits of the minerals used in new and low-carbon...

3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read

Commodities Focus

Metals: China slowdown to offset green transition

While the green transition and AI-related use will boost demand for industrial metals over the rest of this decade, we expect this to largely be offset by a substantial contraction in demand from...

19th September 2024 · 10 mins read

Commodities Focus

Will India kickstart the next commodity boom?

With a large and growing population and a bright long-term economic outlook, the stage is set for India’s commodity demand to boom. However, there are several reasons why India won’t have the same...

10th September 2024 · 11 mins read

Commodities Focus

China’s gold rush has much further to run

Against the backdrop of central bank buying, strong physical gold demand, and a surge in ETF holdings, China appears to have been a key driver of the rally in gold prices earlier this year. Looking...

29th August 2024 · 16 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might...

23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy?

A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris...

25th June 2024 · 13 mins read

Industrial Metals Focus

How metals-hungry will the green transition be?

The metals-intensive nature of green technologies will add to demand for a host of industrial and battery metals, with green demand for copper and aluminium likely to grow twice as quickly as...

23rd May 2024 · 17 mins read

Commodities Focus

Fed rate cuts won’t send commodity prices soaring

The latest US CPI data may have dashed hopes of interest rate cuts as early as June, but looser monetary policy is still firmly on the cards late this year and over the course of next year. Lower...

16th April 2024 · 12 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Focus

EM winners and losers from the green transition

The green transition will deal a significant blow to EM oil producers that have failed to save their windfalls (Nigeria, Colombia, Angola), but boost the export revenues of economies such as Chile and...

4th March 2024 · 14 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

Forecasting near-term moves in the carbon price

This final report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU...

22nd February 2024 · 7 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

Modelling market fundamentals and price dynamics

This second report of a three-part mini-series establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon...

22nd February 2024 · 10 mins read

Climate Economics Focus

A primer on the EU’s emissions trading scheme

This first report of a three-part mini-series explains what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in 2005. It then explores how reforms to the ETS...

22nd February 2024 · 13 mins read