The marginally stronger-than-consensus Q1 GDP data and broad stability in March growth figures suggest that concerns over the state of China’s economy are overdone. The economy is likely to weaken further on the back of slowing credit and property investment. However, with consumption holding up relatively well, export demand warming and infrastructure investment possibly bottoming out, a sharp slowdown should be avoided. This makes the stimulus that many are expecting less likely. Our forecast for this year’s GDP growth remains unchanged at 7.3%.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services