China is growing at a slower rate than a year ago and much slower than five years ago. But the widely-held view that growth has slumped in the past few months – which seems to have been a key factor in the Fed’s decision not to hike – is wide of the mark. In fact, a range of measures covering imports, output and spending suggest that conditions have stabilised and, in many cases, improved since the start of the year. To be fair, Fed Chairman Janet Yellenyesterday raised concern that China might slow further, which is certainly a risk worth considering. But given the evidence of stabilisation in recent data, and the fact that further monetary and fiscal support are in the pipeline, a more likely outturn is that China’s economy strengthens over the quarters ahead.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services