Our calculations suggest that GDP rebounded by almost 3% annualised in the third quarter thanks to a sizable positive contribution from net exports. Unfortunately, that strong contribution from the external sector is unlikely to be repeated in the coming quarters. Business and housing investment, however, should help to buffer domestic demand growth this quarter and next, while personal consumption grows more in line with moderate real income growth. We forecast GDP growth of 2.0% annualised this quarter, before slower growth of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2012.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services