Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The resilience of manufacturing sales suggests easing supply shortages are still supporting activity, with the transport sector reaping much of the benefits. Nevertheless, the surveys point to a... 15th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The fall in employment and the increase in the unemployment rate to 5.2% in May will probably not prevent the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates again at its July meeting, but the moves... 9th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Apr.) Easing supply shortages supported strong export growth in April but, with the surveys of export orders still very weak, that strength is likely to fade soon. 7th June 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) The larger-than-expected 3.1% annualised rise in first-quarter GDP and the strong preliminary estimate in April boost the case for another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which could come... 31st May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The fall in retail sales in March was driven mainly by lower vehicle sales. Overall sales volumes still rose by 4.9% annualised last quarter, suggesting that a pick-up in consumption supported GDP... 19th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The renewed acceleration in the monthly changes in CPI-trim and CPI-median in April leaves us doubting our view that the Bank of Canada will be ready to cut interest rates as soon as October. 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The decline in full-time positions in April means that the large rise in total employment was weaker than it looks. Hours worked only crept up during the LFS reference week and, given the public... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The small rise in export volumes and slump in import volumes in March confirms that net trade improved last quarter. However, the weakness of imports means there is a risk that the preliminary... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The small rise in GDP in February points to healthy first-quarter growth but, with the preliminary estimate pointing to a contraction in March and activity set to suffer in April due to the federal... 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) After a strong start to the year, retail sales volumes dropped back in February and the preliminary estimate implies they fell again in March. While consumption probably still rose at a healthy pace... 21st April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Base effects helped to pull headline inflation lower in March, but there were also encouraging signs in core inflation, as the average three-month annualised gain in CPI-trim and CPI-median fell to a... 18th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) After a bright start to the year, manufacturing activity weakened in February. While that was partly due to temporary factors that are likely to be quickly reversed, the surveys point to a challenging... 14th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The unemployment rate remained very low at 5.0% in March but, with wage growth slowing and the survey indicators pointing to a sharper decline ahead, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be too concerned... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Exports are still on track to rise this quarter, despite declining in February specifically, but the renewed deterioration in the survey-based export indicators points to weakness in the second... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) There was plenty to be encouraged by in the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys, with firms’ sales expectations holding up even as labour and other capacity pressures eased considerably... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The strength of GDP growth in January, and probably February too, suggests the Bank of Canada will use its April meeting to reiterate that, despite the recent banking turmoil, it is still prepared to... 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
