Regardless of whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts interest rates from the current rate of 2.25% to 2.00% at the April or May policy meeting (we slightly favour a move at the meeting on Tuesday 7th April), the main point is that this is unlikely to mark the end of the loosening cycle. Our forecast that the RBA will reduce rates to 1.5% by the end of this year incorporates more cuts than the markets currently expect.
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