RBA Watch

RBA still on course to cut rates by February

The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will stick to hawkish message

The Reserve Bank of Australia will probably stick to its hawkish message at its upcoming meeting. And while GDP growth is set to disappoint the Bank’s optimistic projections, it will take a clear...

17th September 2024 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to stay put as narrow path remains viable

The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to leave policy settings unchanged when it meets next week. Although there has been little progress on disinflation in recent months, the Board is likely to pin...

31st July 2024 · 7 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will wait until early-2025 to cut rates

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although underlying inflation remains uncomfortably high, it is unlikely to meet the threshold for a...

11th June 2024 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to hike in May, no rate cuts until 2025

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to hike rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, in contrast to the consensus view that the Bank will remain on hold. Given the RBA’s ostensible resolve to...

30th April 2024 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA on course for rate cuts in August

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting next week. Although the recent flow of data has been on the weaker side of expectations, the Bank will probably...

12th March 2024 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

A dovish pivot is on the horizon

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave rates on hold at its February meeting. But as inflation plunges, the case for policy to remain restrictive for a prolonged period looks increasingly...

31st January 2024 · 7 mins read

RBA Watch

Tightening cycle is now over

We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on 5 th December. And while the resilience of trimmed mean inflation could prompt another 25bp rate...

29th November 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hit the brakes once more

With inflation surprising on the upside in Q3, we expect the RBA to lift rates by 25bp at its meeting next week. However, we suspect that the next rate hike will be the last one in the current cycle...

31st October 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to hike again, rate cuts only in Q2 2024

Stronger-than-expected GDP and inflation data should cement the case for the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Given the shifting balance of risks, we think the Bank will...

27th September 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will cut interest rates by early-2024

All of the key indicators released over the past month support our view that the Reserve Bank of Australia is now done hiking interest rates. With inflation now slowing rapidly and the economy set to...

30th August 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will deliver at least one more 25bp hike

With inflation weakening faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated, the Bank may well conclude that it has tightened policy enough to return inflation to target. However, with the...

26th July 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

Cash rate will peak at 4.85% by September

While headline inflation plunged in May, we doubt that this will have assuaged the Bank’s concerns about soaring unit labour costs and rising inflation expectations. Accordingly, we’re sticking to our...

28th June 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to lift rates to 4.35% by July

With inflation set to overshoot the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts this quarter, we’re now pencilling in two more 25bp rate hikes, including one at the upcoming meeting on 6th June. And we don...

31st May 2023 · 8 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA to deliver final 25bp rate hike next week

While inflation is moderating a touch faster than the RBA had anticipated, the continued acceleration in services inflation will probably prompt the RBA to deliver a final 25bp rate hike next week...

26th April 2023 · 8 mins read