The international trade surplus is well past its peak and will probably continue to fall in the coming months. What’s more, the nominal surplus in the first quarter won’t prevent net exports from subtracting from real GDP. We estimate that the 1.1% q/q rise in real GDP in the fourth quarter was followed by a 0.5% q/q gain in the first.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services