US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2022) As expected, NCREIF all-property total returns dropped back significantly in Q3, to just 0.6% q/q, as investor demand pared back in response to higher alternative asset yields and the poor outlook for... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns see worst month since Brexit vote The rise in interest rates and upcoming recession are leading to a rapid turnaround in commercial property performance. Rental growth is starting to ease, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone all-property rents to stagnate next year The deep recession faced by the euro-zone in the coming year will cause a sharp slowdown in prime rental growth, which we now expect to drop to 0% at the all-property level next year. We don’t think... 20th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: What recession will mean for real estate returns 1667318400 With a US recession looming, Kiran Raichura and Andrew Burrell held a briefing on the impact of weaker growth on commercial real estate returns and answering your questions.
UK Commercial Property Update Offices see biggest fall in our rental downgrade With interest rates now higher, we have made downgrades to our forecast for UK GDP growth. We expect that this will bring a sharper deceleration in rental growth at the all-property level, with falls... 17th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Structural change and higher rates still key to sector returns The weaker economic growth outlook will weigh most heavily on the retail and apartment sectors, where we have made the largest downgrades to our rental growth forecasts. But the relatively small size... 14th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House prices begin to fall A deterioration in the economic outlook and renewed rise in mortgage rates to a 16-year high in September means the housing market is set for a further slowdown. We estimate that mortgage payments as... 14th October 2022 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Growth downgrades to dent real estate returns in 2023 With a mild recession now built into our forecast, the outlook for commercial real estate performance has worsened. But because this is a relatively small downgrade and it is joined by an expectation... 12th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning are property fund outflows? In response to a surge in withdrawals as pension funds rushed to secure cash to meet margin calls, several property funds implemented restrictions to prevent the need for a fire-sale of assets. To... 11th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property capital values set to fall by 15% Looser-than-expected fiscal policy following the mini-Budget means we now expect Bank Rate and gilt yields to be higher. All else equal, that would push the spread between the 10-year yield and all... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Dallas offices set to lead the pack for rents and returns The overriding story this quarter is that although weak demand and steady inventory growth in the next couple of years will push up vacancy in many metros, we still see asking rents growing solidly as... 23rd September 2022 · 14 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Phoenix knocked off top spot by southern markets We expect a sharp slowdown in apartment rental growth across the board, as job growth slows, affordability constraints bite and an influx of supply pushes up vacancy. But some markets will perform... 16th September 2022 · 15 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Supermarkets one winner from cost-of-living crisis After reaching close to a record high at the start of 2021, the gap between supermarket and all-retail equivalent yields has since fallen back to its pre-COVID-19 level. That is likely to reflect the... 16th September 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Energy price cap worsens the property outlook By boosting real disposable incomes, the energy price cap will give some support to commercial rents, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such as leisure and retail. However, that benefit needs to... 14th September 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Price correction to prove relatively small this time around Higher interest rates mean that real estate looks significantly overpriced in all sectors. The latest activity and performance data suggest that a correction is underway, but as we now think the 10... 9th September 2022 · 25 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Aug.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a significant downgrade for total returns in 2022 and 2023, as higher yields hit capital value forecasts. But with those hikes in yields now happening sooner... 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
