US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Western and big six metros set for 25%+ price falls We have made substantial downgrades to our metro-level forecasts this quarter. The outlook for office-based employment growth has been hit by tech sector struggles, weighing on demand in many western... 14th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Capital values to fall 25% in San Fran, Seattle and D.C. We expect a surge in completions and a slowdown in employment growth to push vacancy substantially higher in all markets over the next few years. That will slam the brakes on rental growth, causing an... 12th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an outlier as the labour market resumes its cooling. We expect metros with a high... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jan.) January was an especially strong month for payrolls data, and this translated into positive employment growth across all 30 of the biggest metros. However, this was not the case for office-based jobs... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update West Coast ports to rally while Houston stands resilient Failed dockworker union negotiations on the West Coast have led to further diversion of US imports toward the East and Gulf Coasts, supporting warehousing demand in those markets for longer than... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Poor affordability key to bigger price falls in the West In this Update we examine the implications of affordability for house prices at the market level. Despite sunbelt markets seeing the strongest house price growth over the past couple of years... 6th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Widespread downgrades to office-based job forecasts Our new forecasts for metro employment growth have prompted limited change in the rankings for total jobs over the next three years. But, there are two shifts, both owing much to recent and likely... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores rise, but still some way to go this year Q4 property valuation scores rose from their Q3 troughs, as equity earnings yields fell and property yields all increased. Even so, that left all major sectors still looking overvalued, suggesting... 23rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Re-pricing set to dominate rental growth differentials Data for the fourth quarter showed a widespread deterioration in occupier demand in all three sectors. This was worst in some of the big six and West coast metros, with markets like Phoenix, Portland... 22nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Nashville tops updated ranking of remote worker metros Our updated remote worker metro ranking shows some important changes since the end of the pandemic, though the winners remain in the South. Nashville tops the table, having climbed seven places... 11th January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023 Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update How did our key calls for 2022 fare? While our forecast that the economy would slow in 2022 on the back of high inflation and Fed policy tightening was right, like every other forecaster we were surprised by its extent. This threw off... 4th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Southern lead to narrow We now expect a small fall in rents next year in a handful of metros as affordability constraints and falling employment take their toll on demand. At the same time, a wave of completions in some of... 29th December 2022 · 12 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Atlanta, Dallas top the rankings; NYC, SF lose out Consistent with our national office story, we expect a few years of insipid rent growth and returns for most US office markets. Expensive coastal metros will continue to see weak demand as high rates... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
